My predictions for Gaza
And a few extra things
This will be my last Gaza article for a while. I’ve written three so far…
- How to Make Trump’s Gaza Plan Work
- The Only Real Problem with Trump’s Gaza Plan
- What’s the alternative to Trump’s Gaza Plan?
Here are my predictions…
Slowly at first…
Trump will continue to promote his Gaza plan but take no immediate concrete action to realize it (no pun intended).
World leaders and especially Arab leaders will continue to condemn and/or ridicule the plan.
Later, when the history of this period is written we will learn that many world leaders, and especially Arab leaders, were quietly encouraging Trump.
The War Against Hamas and the Flight to Egypt
The Gaza ceasefire will continue until all the hostages are free or until Hamas violates the agreement. Then the war will renew. That could be in a matter of days as I write this.
Sometime before or after the war’s resumption Trump will start pressuring Egypt to take Gazan refugees. He will offer carrots and sticks.
The carrots will include money for Egypt and money to buy land from the Gazans and to compensate their resettlement costs.
Trump will either use unspent foreign aid money for this purpose or persuade Congress to allocate new money.
Egypt will yield on humanitarian grounds and with a promise that former residents can return to Gaza later.
The End of Hamas
The war against Hamas will continue until every Hamas fighter is dead or imprisoned.
This means every jihadist released during the hostage ceasefire will be returned to prison or the grave.
We should mourn the necessity of this, but we should mourn even more that they decided to be evil. Perhaps Masab Hassa Yousef will provide counseling to his former fellow Hamas members in prison so that some of them will eventually reform and be released.
Final Departure
The destruction of Hamas will also destroy the rest of Gaza. This will dramatically increase the pressure for non-combatant Gazans to emigrate.
By the time the war ends nearly all the Gazans will be gone to Egypt or other places.
Twilight of the United Nations
The UN General Assembly will narrowly pass sanctions against Trump and the U.S., led by the world’s dictatorships and some of the left-leaning democracies.
Trump will withdraw from the UN, evict the UN from its building on the Hudson River, and seize the property. MAGA will scream with joy and Congress will consent.
The Left and the wider world will scream with rage, but it will be impotent. The UN will join the League of Nations in the dustbin of history.
A time to build
Trump will start clearing land in northern Gaza before the war is finished in the South. U.S. engineers will use the debris for landfill to create one or more artificial ports for the new Gaza Riviera.
Once the Gazans have all moved and the UN has been kneecapped, the fulminations from Arab leaders will fade away. Behind-the-scenes negotiations for participation in the new real estate development will have already begun.
Gaza will be rebuilt with money from all around the world, including piles of Arab petrodollars.
What’s in it for Uncle Sam?
I cannot predict if the U.S. will profit, or how much corruption and waste will infiltrate. That tends to happen with government and government-adjacent endeavors. It may still be true with this project, even in the age of DOGE.
I do think the net result will be less U.S. spending for the Middle East in the decades ahead. That may deliver a long-term profit even if Gaza-lago does not.
And what price should we put on peace?
The peace question will be especially relevant after the other moves Israel seems likely to make when they finish with Hamas.
Closure with Iran
I have been predicting and continue to predict that Israel will seek a final reckoning with Iran.
I think I read somewhere that Trump has already given Israel the bunker-busting bombs they will need to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
I predict those bombs will be used.
Trump claims he is still willing to make a deal with Iran, but character is destiny. I do not think the Mullahs will agree to a suitable bargain.
Muslim radicals increasingly remind me of the comical black knight in Monty Python’s “Holy Grail.” He lost his arms and his legs but he still wanted to fight. The Iranian radicals appear to be like that. They will trust in Allah and the bombs will fall because Allah is not with them.
But the bombs won’t just fall on the nuclear sites, they will fall on every state asset the Mullahs have, excluding perhaps the oil facilities. I predict the Israelis will spare those for the new Iran that will soon be born.
As the bombs fall the Iranian people will rise once again (as they have six times before), but this time the theocracy will finally die. Israel will provide the air force and the people will provide the foot soldiers. Iranian Islamic radicalism will end.
And then the next shoe will drop.
Judea and Samaria
I have been predicting and continue to predict that Israel will annex Judea and Samaria, the so-called West Bank.
Israel will then open the door for Palestinian Arabs to seek Israeli citizenship. Many will. Slowly at first, then as a trickle, later as a flood.
Acts of terror will also increase. I predict the half-life for such events will be short.
With Gaza gone, the Mullahs deposed, Hezbollah decapitated, the Palestinian Authority defunded, and with more and more Arab states doing business with Israel, I predict the fight will finally go out of the completely unnecessary Palestinian cause. They will become what they could have and should have been all along — Arab citizens of Israel.
Slowly the walls and checkpoints will come down. Slowly the incomes and prospects of the Palestinian Arabs will rise.
There will be a one-state solution. The Jews and the Arabs will share the Holy Land, from the river to the sea.
Gazans in the Land of Egypt
Very few Gazan Arabs will ever return.
No man or woman can step into the same river twice, especially when doing so has become very expensive.
Because the Palestinians neglected to do with Gaza what Trump will do with it, they will never again be able to afford to live there.
This is sad. It is probably also true. It is also deserved.
The future seen darkly
Much remains cloudy to me.
I have no strong intuition about what will happen with Syria, Turkey, and the Kurds. They may yet become sources of mischief and grief. Likewise with Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. But if humanity, with America in the vanguard, achieves all that I have predicted here, let us enjoy that for a moment or two.
Copyright © Perry Willis 2025
Perry Willis is the co-founder of Downsize DC and the Zero Aggression Project. He co-created, with Jim Babka, the Read the Bills Act, the One Subject at a Time Act, and the Write the Laws Act, all of which have been introduced in Congress. He is a past Executive Director of the national Libertarian Party and was the campaign manager for Harry Browne for President in 2000.
