My latest predictions about Israel versus the Iranian theocracy
I have a good track record so far
I’ve written two other articles (here and here) making predictions about this subject. Nearly all my predictions came true. Let’s see how I do this time.
Notice that I don’t call this conflict “Israel versus Iran.” That’s because the Iranian people are on Israel’s side. Instead, this is a war between Israel and the Iranian theocracy.
I predict the following order of battle…
The Israelis will start by degrading the theocracy’s air defense systems.
They will then strike the theocratic leadership directly, including their homes and offices.
Finally, Israel will hit the nuclear facilities.
I predict Israel will leave the oil infrastructure alone for now.
I think the Israelis hope the Iranian people will rise up once again, and this time, under cover of the Israeli air force, prevail against the theocracy. In that case, it will be good for the new government to have quick access to their oil resources
I think regime change is the ultimate Israeli goal. Netanyahu signaled this in his direct speech to the Iranian people a few days ago.
Should the regime survive the steps described above I think the Israelis will continue the attack by degrading other Revolutionary Guard assets, such as bases and ammo dumps. This stage could continue indefinitely.
Eventually, if the regime does not fall earlier, I expect more secular elements of the Guard to turn against the theocrats rather than endure continued bombing.
If/when regime change happens, I expect peace to arrive in the Middle East. The rhetorical shouting from some Palestinian Arabs will continue, but the violence will mostly end. This is in marked contrast to the artificial regime change the U.S. caused in Iraq. The Iranians want such change far more than the Iraqis did.
Once the theocrats fall I expect Israel to annex Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) formally and perhaps Gaza too.
Eventually, the Israelis, Arabs, and Iranians will end up in business together, and the Arabs of Palestine will become mostly happy and prosperous citizens of Israel.
Final note: The Biden administration has rejected Israeli attacks on theocratic nuclear facilities, but they are considering attacks on the Mullahs’ oil assets. This is brain-dead. The Iranian people will need the oil while Israel needs to be free from the nuclear threat. Biden has things exactly backward. Biden has also advocated a proportional Israeli response to the theocrats, but that would involve shooting hundreds of missiles at Iranian civilians. Stupid. One doesn’t have to be a Republican or a Trump fan (I am neither, I am a libertarian) to think Biden’s proposals are non-sensical.
I will report back as my predictions succeed or fail. So please subscribe.
Copyright © Perry Willis 2024
Perry Willis is the co-founder of Downsize DC and the Zero Aggression Project. He co-created, with Jim Babka, the Read the Bills Act, the One Subject at a Time Act, and the Write the Laws Act, all of which have been introduced in Congress. He is a past Executive Director of the national Libertarian Party and was the campaign manager for Harry Browne for President in 2000.
