My predictions for Iran vs. Israel
How peace can happen
Iran just did two strange things…
- They expended vast resources on drone and missile attacks they knew Israel could easily thwart. Why did they bother, and why did they do so on such a vast scale at such great expense?
- Iran also announced that it would make no further direct attacks on Israel. Why do that? Why not maintain the suspense?
Plus…
- What is Israel likely to do next?
- What should they do?
- And what stance should the U.S. take?
I make predictions and provide answers below…
Why Iran spent so much on such a futile attack
- Honor culture considerations (saving face) required Iran to retaliate for Israel’s bombing of its Revolutionary Guard leaders in Syria. But…
- A highly successful Iranian counter-attack would have caused Israel to escalate, perhaps by eliminating Iran’s nuclear facilities.
- Iran knows it cannot win a full-scale war against Israel. Therefore…
- Iran wanted to put on a good show, but in such a way as to avoid escalation.
The need for a “good show” explains the attack’s large scale. Fear of escalation explains the futile weapons Iran used and their announced intention to launch no further assaults. Thus…
“Face” has been saved while perhaps also avoiding a larger conflict. These events show us something useful…
Iran’s leaders are at least partially rational
This evidence of rationality addresses the question of how much devotion Iran’s leaders have to the martyrdom mania that afflicts so many fundamentalist Muslims. If their love of martyrdom is low they are less likely to use atomic bombs for anything other than deterrence, should they ever acquire such weapons. This is good news. But…
I maintain that Iran’s leaders are only partially rational. They remain devoted to spending vast sums supporting Hamas in Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shia radicals in Iraq. It’s hard to see what any of these investments generate. They cannot…
- Eliminate Israel
- Increase Iran’s size or power
- Make Iran or its leaders richer
- Make Iran more secure
- Give Iran’s leaders more orgasms
Iran’s actions serve no normal human motivation except ego and hatred. As such, they are not fully rational. But perhaps Iran’s leaders are vulnerable to future persuasive reasoning, especially given one other notable fact about their failed assault against Israel.
Jordon, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates defended Israel against Iran
All three Arab Islamic countries deployed military assets to thwart the missiles and drones aimed at Israel. This is important.
Many have speculated that Hamas attacked Israeli civilians on October 7th to provoke a retaliatory action that would forestall Israel’s improving relations with its Arab neighbors. That strategy now seems to have failed.
Muslim nations have criticized the ferocity of Israel’s Gaza invasion. They have also delayed continued negotiations with Israel. But their defense of Israel against Iran shows that neither Iran nor its proxies can prevent improved Arab-Israeli relations in the long run.
The Arab Muslim Street remains highly anti-semitic and hostile to Israel, but all the governments of the region see more value in cooperation than war. I think peace is coming to the Middle East, whether Iran or the Palestinians like it or not.
But where do we go from here?
What I think Israel will do
Israel recently withdrew forces from Gaza. I think this is temporary. They want to prepare for a potential Hezbollah attack in the north, while allowing humanitarian efforts greater scope to prevent famine and disease in Gaza. In the meantime…
I understand that Israel is working with wealthy Palestinian families to give them control over Gaza in the future. Hamas and the Palestinian Authority would both be out of the picture. After a decent interval, the IDF will return and start to move civilians from the Rafah area back to the north. It will then finish the task of destroying Hamas.
If Hezbollah attacks continue the IDF will then invade Lebanon and attempt to eliminate Hezbollah too.
Stay tuned and see how my predictions fare. There are other possibilities…
What I think Israel could do
Israel may exploit the Iranian attack to destroy Iranian nuclear assets, hoping to forestall an Iranian atomic bomb. I understand the motivation for this, but I think it escalates what should be de-escalated.
What I think Israel should do
I think Israel is correct to insist on annihilating Hamas, That will be best for both the Israelis and the Palestinians.
I think Israel should avoid attacking Iran directly. They should be more methodical. Eliminate Iran’s proxies first, and then see if Iran wants to simmer down after having spent so much money for no useful purpose.
I also think Israel should try to develop back channels for negotiations with Iran, assuming such channels don’t exist already. Israel should constantly point out that Iran’s destabilization investments can achieve nothing useful. Meanwhile, Iran’s rulers have a lot to gain from improved relations with Israel and the West. Israeli diplomats may have to say this a hundred times before the point finally penetrates.
As a general rule, I think combatants should always be negotiating, even while they are fighting. Just imagine what might have happened had this approach been used during World War 1, for instance.
What I think the United States should do
The U.S. should start to reduce its involvement.
I think American politicians may have done more harm than good for Israel. Yes, the U.S. has funded vast Israeli arms purchases. That has probably helped Israel while also enriching the Military Industrial Complex, but…
The zionist project makes no sense if Israel cannot completely fund its own defense. Otherwise, Israel is simply relying on the gentile nations whose unreliability inspired Zionism in the first place.
Other than military funding most U.S. policies have harmed Israel. President Reagan prevented Israel from destroying the PLO in Lebanon in 1982 and we have funded both the Palestinians and United Nations institutions that have been hostile to Israel.
Our funding for Palestinians has subsidized and weaponized a kleptocracy in the Palestinian Authority and Islamic jihad in the form of Hamas. U.S. and European tax dollars (along with vast subsidies from Arab oil states) have made it possible for Palestinians to avoid creating an effective civil society. Instead, the Palestinians are welfare junkies.
Worst of all…
U.S. leaders have constantly pimped for a misguided two-state solution
This policy makes no sense given that the Palestinians have never been willing to settle for anything less than the whole territory, from the river to the sea. Thus…
Any Palestinian state that came into existence would wage constant war against Israel, just as Hamas has done in Gaza.
It makes more sense for Israel to rescue Palestinian Arabs from Hamas and the Palestinian Authority by formally annexing Judea and Samaria (the so-called West Bank.) This would eventually give the people in that territory the same quality of life that Arab Israelis enjoy.
People counter-argue that this would create an Arab majority, thereby destroying the Jewish state from within. But that fear is based on several bad assumptions.
First of all, none of the surrounding Arab nations give their Palestinian residents citizenship or the right to vote. They refrain from doing so because the Palestinians have been a hostile and destabilizing force in every country where they reside. Israel too could delay providing full citizenship for the same reason. The United States and every other country does the same thing with new residents.
Second, the belief that ethnic Arabs would outnumber Jews is based on fraudulent demographic reports created by the Palestinian Authority. Many studies suggest that Jews will have a substantial majority, even after Judea-Samaria (the West Bank) is formally annexed.
What we really need is a one-state solution. Israel should rule from the river to the sea. If U.S. politicians want to do something effective, they should pimp for that.
Looking ahead
I expect Israel to destroy Hamas, and then withdraw from Gaza, leaving a Palestinian oligarchy in charge, perhaps with assistance from the United Arab Emirates. That country seems like potentially a more honest broker than Qatar.
If Hezbollah continues to attack in the north Israel will then invade Lebanon and eliminate that organization.
Iran will have to decide how long it wants to continue throwing good money after bad. I do not believe they will try to reconstitute Hamas. They may also defund Hezbollah and the Houthis. I suspect they will continue to support Assad in Syria, to keep ISIS at bay.
I believe the Israeli Left and Right are now united in opposing a two-state solution. I think this may create a consensus in favor of formally annexing Judea and Samaria. If that happens the world will howl, and then sigh with relief.
There are two precedents for this. Israel did something similar with the Golan Heights and Jerusalem.
After annexation, the Israelis will close the Palestinian Authority and all Palestinian organizations that advocate jihad or the destruction of Israel. Absent leadership and the logistical support of these organizations the Palestinians will scream and grumble while also scrambling to enjoy the benefits of a new and improved legal regime.
Reports of improved human rights conditions and an end to settler vigilanteism in Judea-Samaria will give the Arab states increased cover to further normalize relations with Israel.
Don’t be surprised if you see Israel join with several Arab nations to build a new canal parallel to Suez.
We see nothing but chaos now, but I think peace is coming to the Middle East and coming soon. The October 7th attack may have been a last gasp for suicidal Palestinian Islamism.
Copyright © Perry Willis 2024
Perry Willis is the co-founder of Downsize DC and the Zero Aggression Project. He co-created, with Jim Babka, the Read the Bills Act, the One Subject at a Time Act, and the Write the Laws Act, all of which have been introduced in Congress. He is a past Executive Director of the national Libertarian Party and was the campaign manager for Harry Browne for President in 2000.
