My 36 Surprising Predictions for 2025
Plus a few bonuses
I’ve had an almost 100% success rate with the predictions I’ve made in recent articles (see here and here). But some of my new prophecies below will surely be wrong. Leave a comment to tell me where you think I’ve messed up. And please share your own predictions.
NOTE: If you seek the key to my prognostications it is this — I consider the psychologies of the key actors and decide how I think each person or group will respond to the incentives they face. And by doing this I have come to the following general conclusion…
I think 2025 will be the most consequential year since the end of the Cold War — a pivotal moment in history when old stories end and new ones begin. Here are 36 examples of potential pivotal change. I predict…
#1: President Trump will dramatically increase support for Ukraine, remove limits on how Ukraine uses U.S. weapon systems, impose new sanctions on Russia, and improve enforcement of the sanctions that already exist.
Trump will do this to leverage peace negotiations and to improve deterrence against future acts of aggression by other powers. He will do these things on his first day in office. He may even do some of them after he walks away from the inauguration podium.
#2: European forces will enter the Ukrainian battlefield unless the Putin regime collapses first.
Europe will not let Ukraine fall, especially when Putin is so weak.
Trump will support this European move, but he will not commit U.S. forces. He will claim the increased European involvement as a win for his policy of making Europeans pay more for their own defense.
#3: Putin will attempt to use tactical nukes to counter the introduction of European troops.
I want to stress my use of the word “attempt.” My next prediction explains why.
#4: The Putin regime will fall sometime in 2025.
If Putin orders his generals to use tactical nukes he will be deposed instantly. His regime will still fall if he sticks to conventional weapons, but it will take a few more weeks.
#5: The Russian generals who depose Putin will call for new elections to restore democracy.
They will not necessarily want to do this, but they will do it, because of their economic and demographic weakness. Russia must reintegrate with the world economy or it has no future.
The military will also take strong actions against the Russian Security Service so as to ensure the dominance of the army and the legislative branch in the new government.
#6: Russia will lose Donbas, Crimea, and the border regions of Moldova.
The new Russian government will negotiate to keep these regions but fail. Trump will fully exploit his negotiating advantage. As Nietzsche once wrote, “That which is falling, let it also be pushed.”
Trump and Europe will give Russia short-term security guarantees and a list of criteria it must meet to gain future NATO membership. The possibility of NATO membership will be a huge face-saving win for the new Russian government.
#7: The Putin-friendly politicians in Georgia, Hungary, and Byelorussia will also fall.
Again, “That which is falling should also be pushed.” The pushing in those countries will come internally.
#8: Trump and NATO will announce that all the countries formerly threatened by Putin are candidates for future NATO membership.
Future historians will see this event, and the possibility of future Russian membership, as symbolic of a final peace settlement in Europe.
#9: Israel will start bombing Iran within minutes or days of Trump being inaugurated.
These bombings will directly target regime leaders, their homes and offices, and all nuclear facilities.
#10: Trump will order the U.S. Air Force to provide Israel with mid-air fueling tankers the moment he leaves the inauguration platform. At the same time…
#11: Trump will order the U.S. Navy to begin a full-scale assault on the Houthis in Yemen, to clear the sea lanes and end the Houthi threat.
This will include a blockade of Yemen’s ports.
#12: Netanyahu will formally ask the Iranian people to overthrow the theocracy.
He will, at the same time, announce that Israel is expanding its bombing targets to include all Iranian military facilities.
BONUS PREDICTION: Israel will not attack Iran’s oil terminals. They will let trade sanctions strangle the regime’s oil revenue and leave the infrastructure to benefit the future Iranian government.
#13: The Iranian people will revolt against the Mullahs.
Israel will provide the air force and the Iranian people will provide the ground troops to overthrow the theocracy. This time around (there have been previous attempts) lower-level regime members will join the revolt instead of using violence to suppress it.
#14: The Iranian theocracy will fall within a matter of days.
The son of the former Shah of Iran will return to the country as either a powerless head of state in a constitutional monarchy, or, more likely, as a humble candidate for office in the revived Iranian Republic.
#15: The Kurds in northwestern Iran, northern Iraq, northeastern Syria, and southeastern Turkey will announce a new Kurdish nation.
I simply cannot imagine that the Kurds won’t try to exploit the chaos in Iran and Syria.
#16: Turkey, Iraq, and Syria will threaten war against the new Kurdistan.
But the new Iranian government will let the Kurdish part of their country go.
#17: Trump, NATO, and the EU will all warn Turkey, Syria, and Iraq against using military force.
This warning will quickly escalate to include the loss of U.S. weapons, potential ejection from NATO, and finally, an end to Turkey’s bid to join the EU. Economic sanctions may follow.
#18: Erodogan will invade Kurdistan and find himself in a quagmire.
I suspect the Kurds learned quite a bit from the Iraqi insurgency against the United States. They will apply those lessons to the Turks.
#19: The Kurds will replace Ukraine as the target of vast aid from the West.
Trump will reluctantly support this, hoping the conflict will turn the Turkish people away from Erdogan. It will take time, but I think that will happen. Western culture will prove more attractive to most Turks than Islamism.
#20: The Israeli government will formally annex Judea, Samaria, Gaza, and the upper reaches of the Golan Heights.
Israel will also create cantons in Gaza ruled by tribal councils under an umbrella of Israeli law. This approach will prove stable and peaceful.
#21: Arab governments will protest, but do nothing.
Secretly they will breathe a sigh of relief that the long conflict may be near an end.
#22: Trump will endorse Israel’s annexations.
He will argue that the Palestinian Arabs will fare better as citizens of Israel than they would as citizens of a Palestinian state. The current Arab citizens of Israel demonstrate the kind of life Palestinians could have under Israeli law.
#23: Trump will seize the opportunity to reduce aid for both Israel and the Palestinians because the dispute is theoretically settled.
Trump will declare another win for MAGA.
#24: Terror attacks will spike in Judea and Samaria.
The IDF will hit back hard and the Left everywhere in the world will condemn them. Much of this condemnation will come from the organs of the United Nations.
We should appreciate the irony of this given that the UN created Israel in the first place.
#25: Trump and the Republican Congress will reduce or eliminate funding for the United Nations.
I think elimination is the more likely policy. Trump will declare that he has done more to settle global disputes in one year than the UN has done in its entire existence. He’ll say, “Who needs the UN now that America is great again? The second American century is at hand!”
BONUS PREDICTION: The rump of the UN will remain on the banks of the Hudson, because no one will care to fund a move. But don’t be surprised if Trump evicts them and seizes the property. That’s the kind of red meat his base would gorge on while enjoying the tears and fulminations of the globalist Left.
#26: It will soon become apparent that the size of the Arab population in Gaza, Judea, and Samaria, has been vastly overestimated.
In other words, Jews will still be a majority in the newly expanded Israel.
BONUS PREDICTION: The half-life for continued Palestinian resistance will be short, as international funding drys up and the benefits of Israeli citizenship start to be felt. We have seen this phenomenon before when Israel annexed part of the Golan Heights and the Arab quarter of Jerusalem. Arab applications for citizenship grew quickly. Palestinians will continue to grumble for decades or centuries to come, but it will be like the things neo-confederates say about the American Civil War — comforting psycho-drama.
#27: Turkey/Kurdistan and China/Taiwan will become the main issues of world anxiety, with an occasional side glance at North Korea and the growing conflict between the Taliban and Pakistan.
I do not think any of these issues will be resolved in 2025. They will mostly just simmer.
#28: The Trump administration will make a great show of wall building and deportations.
It will be more than show, actually. There will be a whole lot of both things.
#29: Trump will also make a great show of raising tariffs in various places.
#30: Trump will feel intense pressure from business interests to improve and expand legal immigration.
The wall building and deportations will give Trump cover to do this, and he will need to do it if he wants a vibrant growing economy. There simply aren’t enough workers for all the factories he wants to bring back to America. Just as only Nixon could go to China, only Trump can give us an improved immigration law that expands legal immigration.
#31: The tariff increases will mostly be temporary as they leverage foreign policy outcomes and improved trade agreements.
There will be no serious effort to replace the income tax with tariffs.
BONUS PREDICTION FOR BEYOND 2025: I predict overall tariffs will be lower when Trump leaves office than they are now. Trump will say that this is what he meant to do all along, and it may even be true.
#32: The Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) will cause an ongoing but low-level civil war in Congress, in the Republican Party, and in America as a whole.
Despite these tensions, D.O.G,E, will make tremendous progress and bring about massive cuts across all departments. Trump will mostly support Elon and Vivek and they won’t raise too much fuss when he doesn’t. MAGA will apply intense pressure on Congress to approve most of the recommended cuts when legislative approval is needed.
#33: While D.O.G.E. will cut spending dramatically in many areas, overall spending and borrowing will continue to rise.
Our aging population means the entitlement programs will need more spending and borrowing. Trump will not have the backbone to force the Republican Congress to address this problem. He will leave it for the future to solve.
#34: U.S. economic growth will skyrocket.
Rising tax revenues from this growth will prove helpful but not curative for the deficit. Trump will claim that his economic miracle will eventually balance the budget after he leaves office, but it won’t.
#35: Pressure will grow to renegotiate the terms of the European Union.
I do not expect this to yield results this year, but I do expect the EU to be a less powerful institution by the time Trump leaves office.
#36: This year will see the first major motion picture where an AI program gets a partial screenwriting credit.
That’s enough. Let’s see how I do. Don’t forget to tell me what you think I got right or wrong in the comments section, and please share your own predictions.
Copyright © Perry Willis 2025
Perry Willis is the co-founder of Downsize DC and the Zero Aggression Project. He co-created, with Jim Babka, the Read the Bills Act, the One Subject at a Time Act, and the Write the Laws Act, all of which have been introduced in Congress. He is a past Executive Director of the national Libertarian Party and was the campaign manager for Harry Browne for President in 2000.
