BOLD PREDICTIONS: Trump v Harris & Israel v Iran
Plus, Ukraine v Russia
Trump v. Harris
I will vote for Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party presidential candidate, so please view nothing below as pimping for Trump.
I favor Oliver because I agree with his positions. I also know my vote will not decide the election. That means I am strategically free to vote for what I want, instead of voting defensively for the lesser evil. You should do the same. So having said…
In Facebook and X comments I predicted more than a month ago that Trump would…
- Win all 7 swing states
- Win more than 300 electoral votes
- Win the popular vote
I made these predictions before the recent turn in the polls.
New prediction: Pennsylvania, the supposed uber-swing state, will be irrelevant to the outcome. Pennsylvania counts votes slowly. The national race will already be called for Trump before Pennsylvania officials provide sufficient results.
New prediction: I also think Trump will take at least one state that had seemed safe for Harris and lose no similar states of his own.
Why will Trump win so convincingly?
There are four key reasons…
ONE: Trump was already president for four years and the world didn’t end, despite the dire and hysterical claims made by the left-leaning media. Most swing voters know this, and it takes the curse off voting for him this time. This point is related to the next one…
TWO: Trump-hatred is less likely to drive a large Democratic turn-out. It’s hard to maintain that kind of white-hot anger for so many years. I think Trump-hatred-fatigue has set in, and the Democrats will need an inspiring candidate to drive high turnout. That brings us to…
THREE: Kamala Harris is not inspiring. She freezes when her teleprompter stops working, and she shows a singular lack of depth on the issues. She is simply less presidential than Trump. This is not a comment on her gender. If Maggy Thatcher was running it would be Trump who would seem less presidential. His grasp of the issues isn’t that deep either, nor can he always express himself cogently, but he still has more gravitas than Harris.
FOUR: The Democrats are too cozy with woke craziness, including blatant anti-semitism. As a related bonus point, most Americans support Israel, and it isn’t clear the Democrats still do.
There are other reasons Harris will lose, but these three are enough to sink her. The race will be less close than the experts assumed.
Israel v. Iran
I predicted that Israel would begin by knocking out The Theocracy’s air defenses. It appeared at first that Israel’s assault was more limited than that, but it soon became clear that Israel had done exactly what I predicted. They eliminated all of Iran’s air defenses, with just one sortie. The Iranian Theocracy is now completely vulnerable to whatever Israel does next. Incredible!
It also turns out that Israel hit at least one nuclear facility. They could do this because it was NOT on the list of declared sites the Biden administration admonished the Israelis to avoid.
The reason it wasn’t on the list is telling. The Obama-Biden nuclear deal with Iran only requires inspections for declared sites. Therefore, any nondeclared sites where there is evidence of nuclear activity is de facto evidence that Iran is trying to build a bomb. Israel hit just such a site.
I also think these events have consequences for…
Ukraine v. Russia
The Iranian air defenses Israel destroyed so easily (without losing a single plane), were Russian-made. This tells us that U.S./Israeli technology is vastly superior to Russian technology. Now imagine what might happen if the incoming Trump administration provided more of that technology to Ukraine and removed the limits Biden has placed on how U.S. weapons are used.
Could this happen?
Trump has said he will end Ukrainian aid soon after he takes office. But it was Trump who gave Ukraine weapons the Obama administration withheld. And he also pushed for Republicans to support a recent Ukrainian aid bill. On the other hand…
Trump has promised to end the war quickly through negotiation. He has also said (I wish I could find the link) that he would load down the Ukrainians with weapons to leverage those negotiations. This last thing is the key to understanding the seeming contradictions.
When Trump says he will end Ukrainian aid quickly he means it will no longer be necessary because he will negotiate a peace deal. He thinks those negotiations will be boosted by increased aid to Ukraine in the short term. This is how you make sense of Trump-speech so you can understand Trump-think. Given this interpretation I offer the following…
New prediction: Trump will give Ukraine everything they ask for while removing the limitations on how U.S. weapons are used. He will then try to persuade Putin to end the war.
New prediction: If Putin does not agree to end the war he will be deposed by his own people before the end of 2025.
And this brings us back to…
The next moves for Israel v. the Iranian Theocracy
New prediction: Israel isn’t done. Israel wants this to be the last war they fight. It aims to do this by toppling the Iranian Theocracy.
This is why I’m maintaining my previous predictions about what Israel will do next. My regular readers will remember that I predicted the following order of battle…
- Knock out the air defenses. DONE
- Directly target the homes and offices of the major theocrats. This would parallel what Israel did in Gaza and Lebanon. It would also distract The Theocracy’s leadership before the next step…
- Destroy the nuclear facilities.
- Bomb the Revolutionary Gaurd to dust.
Phase four would aim to help the Iranian people overthrow the regime — something they’ve attempted to do several times before. Netanyahu has signaled that this is his goal. My slogan has been that Israel will provide the air force and the Iranian people will provide the ground troops.
New prediction: Israel will wait until after the election to do more, or perhaps even after the inauguration, hoping that Trump will provide the air-refueling resources they (may) need to do the job right.
Please subscribe to follow how well my predictions turn out.
Copyright © Perry Willis 2024
Perry Willis is the co-founder of Downsize DC and the Zero Aggression Project. He co-created, with Jim Babka, the Read the Bills Act, the One Subject at a Time Act, and the Write the Laws Act, all of which have been introduced in Congress. He is a past Executive Director of the national Libertarian Party and was the campaign manager for Harry Browne for President in 2000.
