The prospects for Putin after Trump’s Ukraine deal
Things aren’t always as they appear
Trump is about to make the U.S. a business partner with Ukraine. That entangles the U.S. more deeply in the conflict without committing any troops. It also creates a deterrent effect against further Putin attempts to absorb Ukraine.
Foreign entanglements have unpredictable dangers, as I’ve shown in numerous articles at WarTruth.org. However, in this case, the deterrent effect against Putin should be greater than the increased risk that the U.S. will become directly involved in the conflict. Putin knows Trump won’t let him conquer Trump’s shiny new mines and so he is less likely to try (assuming Putin could ever fight his way out of Donbas, which he can’t.).
Wither the New Russian Empire?
With one simple business deal, Trump has completely thwarted Putin’s desire to reconstruct the Russian Empire. Putin’s claim that Ukraine is Russia and Russia is Ukraine is reduced to an impotent gust of rhetorical bluster.
If true this leaves Putin with Donbas as the only potential land prize for all the pain and suffering he has inflicted on his country. Putin has not yet won Donbas on the battlefield. Can he win it at the negotiation table?
European troops in Ukraine?
In my prediction article for 2025, I prophesied that European troops would appear on the Ukranian battlefield this year. The noises coming out of Europe strongly suggest this will happen. Trump’s mineral deal now gives new incentives both for and against that move.
On the one hand, the Europeans know they will have America to backstop them should Putin get past them (unlikely). The U.S. now has investments to protect. This makes it safer for Europe to commit the troops.
On the other hand, Europe also knows that only Donbas is now at stake. The Europeans could still commit troops to tip the negotiations against giving Putin Donbas, or they could refrain because they don’t care about that issue.
I don’t have a third hand, but I do have a third possibility. If Europe commits troops that will increase the leverage against Putin during negotiations. It also increases the possibility that Putin will be deposed.
On balance, I still think Europe will commit the troops.
New predictions?
My 2025 prediction article argued that Trump would exploit Putin’s weakness to achieve the maximum outcome.
I described that outcome as Russia losing Ukraine, Donbas, and Crimea, with Putin losing his life to his disgruntled comrades.
Trump’s recent round of kiss-blowing toward Vladimir has made this seem less likely. But appearances can be deceiving.
If you know your mineral deal is going to outflank Putin, you can afford to let him feel overconfident. Putin promptly overplayed his hand by stating negotiation goals that included the removal of all NATO forces from Eastern Europe. Sorry, Vlad. I think that only increases Europe’s desire to put you in your place, which may be a coffin or hanging from a lamppost in Red Square.
Unsurprisingly, Moscow has now disavowed that claim.
I think the damage is already done. I suspect Europe wants to be rid of this irritant, and will move to press their advantage.
For now, I stand by my prediction that Putin will lose Donbas, Crimea, and his life.
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Copyright © Perry Willis 2025
Perry Willis is the co-founder of Downsize DC and the Zero Aggression Project. He co-created, with Jim Babka, the Read the Bills Act, the One Subject at a Time Act, and the Write the Laws Act, all of which have been introduced in Congress. He is a past Executive Director of the national Libertarian Party and was the campaign manager for Harry Browne for President in 2000.
