My prediction scorecard for Iran vs. Israel
What I got right, and what I got wrong
Below, I will use the terms “Iranian regime” or “Islamic Republic” to differentiate the Iranian people from the theocratic tyranny that oppresses them. The Iranian people have tried to end the theocracy multiple times, so they are not responsible for the evil it does.
I made several predictions in a recent article about how Israel would respond to the Islamic Republic’s April 13, 2024 attack. Let’s see how I fared.
Gaza
Many people claimed Israel’s Gaza withdrawal meant they were losing the war. I predicted the withdrawal was only temporary. I argued that Israel would return after they dealt with the Islamic Republic.
I was correct. Israel is now preparing to renew its war against Hamas by invading Rafah.
Humanitarian Aid
I predicted the temporary withdrawal would enable Israel to prepare its retaliation against the Iranian regime while also letting more civilian aid enter Gaza. That prediction was also correct.
Civilian evacuation
I predicted Israel would move civilians north to limit collateral casualties before invading Rafah. I got that one right too. Israel has started the evacuation.
