My notebook: 6–25–22

Factoids, arguments, predictions, thoughts

Not all facts, ideas, and arguments are created equal. Here are the items that impressed me most from my reading yesterday (along with my thoughts and predictions).

Abortion

The Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last week. This does NOT outlaw abortion. It allows the states to create their own rules.

My prediction: Abortion will remain legal in most places. Tax funding for abortions may even increase to help poor women travel to states where abortion is legal. We may also see Indian reservations open abortion clinics. Perhaps most importantly, morning-after contraception will become more available — something that should have happened a long time ago. The net effect will prove to be less dramatic than the current angst suggests. But I also predict the angst will continue, because people love their drama, especially if they can exploit it to grind partisan axes or score political points.

Legal thought: The decision was probably correct in terms of the 10th Amendment, but wrong in terms of the 9th. The legal logic is probably a mixed bag, but I need to read the actual opinion. If/when I do, notes will appear here.

Nuclear power in France

France currently generates 70% of its energy from nuclear power, and now they are planning to add 14 more nuclear plants.

My prediction: France will achieve net-zero carbon emissions sooner than anyone else. They will also be free of Putin’s natural gas sooner than anyone else.

German energy policy continues to be wrong

Germany boasted that it would soon provide all of its energy needs with solar and wind. But now they are having to fire up coal plants even while continuing to close their few remaining nuclear generators.

My prediction: Germany will be the last country to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, despite their uber-embrace of so-called renewables.

Nuclear waste is not a problem

Gail H. Marcus noted in Physics World in 2017 that nuclear is more green than solar and just as green as wind when you consider cradle-to-grave environmental impacts. Mining is required for solar panels, wind turbines, and storage batters, and waste is produced by solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries when they die. Many of the resulting environmental toxins are eternal. By comparison, nuclear waste is small, easily contained and managed, not very harmful, and becomes steadily less dangerous over time.

My prediction: Solar will have valuable niche uses far into the future, but it will never provide the bulk of our power. Meanwhile, wind energy will eventually fade away and nuclear will prevail as our primary power source. The future will come to view nuclear as the only really green form of power generation, pending the advent of fusion or zero point.